The inversion of the US Treasury curve is associated with an exceptionally low term premium. Evaluating yield-curve signals is therefore complicated by compressed term premium. It might be useful to look at other indicators – financial cycle measures have been shown to predict future recession better than the term spread for a panel of countries. We will also discuss:
- Why are interest rates so low? Who is to blame?
- What do the economic schools tell us (Austrians, Keynesians, Monetarists)?
- Which theory has made the most accurate predictions (as experienced ‘live’ in the frontline of a bank treasury)?
- What is the impact on banks?
- What can and should the central bank do?
Dr. Dora Xia: Economist, Monetary and Economic Department, Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
PD Dr. Andreas Blöchlinger: chief risk officer at Swisscanto Invest by Zürcher Kantonalbank
In our chapter events – access for members only – we present one or more speakers to share knowledge, updates and best practises on a specific risk topic. In small groups of risk professionals you can exchange thoughts and test ideas. More on SRA chapters. This event is hosted by the chapter Regulatory Developments.
Yield curve inversion, recession risks & negative rates
13. November 2019
18:00 - 19:30
Venue: CS Forum St. Peter